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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 12

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 1-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model