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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 1-C.Parkey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.52 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model