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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 17

Miami Dolphins 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 1-C.Parkey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model