Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 42

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 8-D.Kaser punts 23 yards to MIA 19, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.11 EP
72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 42, worth -1.67 EP

KICK -0.18 EP

45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
55% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model