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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 10

Miami Dolphins 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model