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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Miami Dolphins
4th & 6 at the 49
Miami Dolphins 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 3
What Actually Happened
(9:06) 16-M.Haack punts 19 yards to LAC 30, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.62 EP
Model's Pick
-
39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.93 EP
- 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
KICK
-1.64 EP
- 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 72% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT
-0.64 EP
What Happened
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.64 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
