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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 34 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to GB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis. Penalty on GB-47-J.Ryan, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP