Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to GB 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis. PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at GB 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model