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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 8-J.Vogel punts 28 yards to ATL 44, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-25-M.Evans.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.82 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model