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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 83

New York Giants 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to DET 46, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model