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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 52

New York Giants 10 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(10:08) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 34-S.Vereen to DET 49 for 3 yards (28-Q.Diggs). Detroit challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 34-S.Vereen to 50 for 2 yards (28-Q.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.67 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 52, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model