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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 72

New York Giants 10 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 9-B.Wing punts 60 yards to DET 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 39-J.Agnew for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.41 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP