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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 7

New York Giants 7 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 7, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model