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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 73

Detroit Lions 17 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to NYG 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 25 for -1 yards (54-S.Longa).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.80 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model