Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 56

Detroit Lions 0 – New York Giants 0

(11:34) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to NYG 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.53 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model