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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 66

New York Giants 7 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to DET 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at DET 25 for 9 yards (46-C.Munson).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.53 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 24, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model