Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 78

Detroit Lions 14 – New York Giants 7

(4:28) 18-J.Locke punts 51 yards to NYG 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 17-D.Harris to NYG 37 for 10 yards (36-D.Washington, 80-M.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.56 EP
73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model