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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short middle to 10-S.Coates [56-T.Williams].

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.88 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.62 EP