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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(1:35) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short middle to 87-S.DeValve to BAL 26 for 12 yards (57-C.Mosley).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.22 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 38, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP