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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 48

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(3:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.74 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.05 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model