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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:14) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.15 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model