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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 90

Cleveland Browns 10 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(6:27) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 67 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 37 for 14 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

The Three Options

GO -3.70 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.32 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 47, worth -2.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model