Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cleveland Browns 10

(8:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 63 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.91 EP
67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model