Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 97

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:53) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to BAL 42, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-M.Campanaro to CLE 47 for 11 yards (27-M.Dayes). PENALTY on BAL-48-P.Onwuasor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 42.

The Three Options

GO -4.11 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.56 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 97, worth -6.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model