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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 22 for 8 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.). PENALTY on CLE-85-D.Njoku, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at CLE 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.63 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model