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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:22) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to BAL 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model