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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(10:51) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to BAL 31, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 36 for 5 yards (10-S.Coates).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.78 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 27, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model