Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 88

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 – Chicago Bears 0

(3:57) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to CHI 38, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.47 EP
50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 88, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model