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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 90

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:58) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to CHI 36, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 46 for 10 yards (52-C.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.94 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 90, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model