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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 14

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29

What Actually Happened

(9:32) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Miller [93-G.McCoy].

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP