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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 68

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

What Actually Happened

(14:24) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 63 yards to TB 5, Center-49-A.DePaola. 18-B.Reedy to TB 22 for 17 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model