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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 54

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:12) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.02 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model