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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(:34) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to CAR 31, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CAR 40 for 9 yards (33-C.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.19 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 41, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP