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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.54 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model