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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 2

Carolina Panthers 6 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +3.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP