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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 0 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP