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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 0 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 6-C.Schmidt punts 56 yards to CAR 7, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at CAR 18 for 11 yards (50-R.Humber).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.95 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model