Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to BUF 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-K.Clay MUFFS catch, recovered by BUF-20-S.Wright at BUF 24. 20-S.Wright to BUF 24 for no gain (52-J.Norris). PENALTY on BUF-36-T.Elston, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model