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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 44
Buffalo Bills 0 – Carolina Panthers 6
What Actually Happened
(12:39) 25-L.McCoy left end to CAR 45 for -1 yards (58-T.Davis).
The Three Options
GO
+1.30 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.53 EP
KICK
-1.04 EP
- 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 59% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT
-0.52 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
