Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

(:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to BUF 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.69 EP
77% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -1.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model