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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 79

Buffalo Bills 0 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to CAR 38, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model