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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 42

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 87-S.DeValve to PIT 36 for 6 yards (22-W.Gay).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.23 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model