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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:31) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.51 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP