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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 4-J.Berry punts 59 yards to CLE 11, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 36 for 25 yards (88-D.Heyward-Bey; 57-K.Canaday).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.59 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model