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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to WAS 40, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, touched at WAS 40, RECOVERED by PHI-88-T.Burton at WAS 39.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.61 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 37, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP