4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 42

Washington Commanders 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 30

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 86-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.21 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP