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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 6-C.Sturgis 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.80 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP