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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 15

Washington Commanders 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 19

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.59 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model