Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 74

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(12:43) 5-T.Way punts 30 yards to PHI 44, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.48 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model