Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 68

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Washington Commanders 7

(4:03) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to WAS 31, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model